Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
